Life without rail

What does Dulles rail mean to this region?

To county planners, and much of the general public, rail means fewer people in western Fairfax County and eastern Loudoun have to use their cars to go to work.

With the work of the Tysons Land Use Task Force and county planning efforts in Reston and Herndon, the rail project has been expected to have a major impact on how the county continues to grow.

Both these issues are of particular interest to the business community, and many business leaders say they are concerned about the future economic growth of Fairfax County without the transit line.

Transportation impacts

Getting cars off the road is a positive for a lot of reasons, according to Freddy Donner, owner of the health company For Health and Balance. Donner said at a recent rail advocacy press conference that the region's congestion problems cause health problems, from back pain to respiratory illnesses.

"Rail will improve our quality of life," Donner said.

All those westerly commuters without the option of rail will also have ancillary effects on other congestion fixes in the region.

"There's not one single solution to congestion problems in this region, everything has to work together," said Jeff Caldwell, a Virginia Department of Transportation representative of the high occupancy toll lanes project.

The design of the beltway HOT lanes project used traffic projections that took into account reductions on the region's traffic caused by the Dulles rail extension. Without the extension, traffic on I-495 would presumably be heavier, driving up the HOT lanes toll prices that are meant to control congestion on the beltway.

"It's too early to speculate on what the traffic impact may or not be," said Jennifer Aument, spokeswoman for Transurban, the company building the HOT lanes.

At the nuts and bolts level, a failure to extend rail would also mean a change in direction for Metro infrastructure. Recently, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors voted not to build an additional parking structure at the Vienna Metro Station, citing the construction of the Dulles rail extension and the commuters it will pull from the Vienna station as a reason.

Virginia's recent injection of NVTA funds into the Metro system was similarly part of the preparations for the Dulles extension. Without it, Metro's improvement of its infrastructure would take a different direction, and possibly be at a different priority level for local leaders.

Growing with and without rail

The Dulles rail extension has also been the motivation for millions of dollars in land deals and construction projects in anticipation of its arrival.

Fairfax has spent more than $1 million on three years of planning work on a redesign of Tysons Corner that is entirely dependent on four rail stations being built there. Without rail, all those plans would have to go on a shelf.

Already, the preliminary stages of the Macerich Co.'s 3.5 million-square-foot expansion of the Tysons Corner Center is proceeding even though the rail extension is in doubt. The company's plans always included a "no rail" option, but that version is smaller by about 80,000 square feet and won't provide the intense mixed-use, concentrated development the company has been lauded for.

"It won't be as large because the densities won't allow it," explained Macerich's John Harrison.

Large-scale projects in Herndon and other areas near the rail line have also been approved with similar conditions.

A threat to the economy?

Without Dulles rail's effect on regional land use or the additional commuter options it would provide, companies will have fewer reasons to expand or relocate to this region, business leaders say.

"One of the reasons we picked this region was rail to Dulles," said Robert Waters, vice president of human resources with Northrop Grumman.

According to Waters and other regional business leaders, large companies wanted the rail project for its benefits to their employees.

According to Kerri Wilson, of local nonprofit Reston Interfaith, those benefits include more than a speedy commute.

"The rail project will help create affordable housing," said Wilson, who added that the transit-oriented development promoted by the presence of rail in turn encourages the creation of affordable housing.

Companies often cite the dearth of affordable housing in the region as an obstacle for companies recruiting workers.

However, to some, the Dulles rail extension doesn't mean quite as much.

State Sen. Ken Cuccinelli (R-Centreville) has described the project as misuse of tax dollars, and believes it would negatively impact congestion in the region.

According to Fairfax County Economic Development Authority President Gerry Gordon, Fairfax's business centers don't need the rail extension to stay viable, although it would help.

"Without a subway system, [Tysons Corner] has grown into one of the region’s and the state’s primary economic engines. That won’t change,” Gordon said in an e-mail to The Times.

George Mason Economic analyst Stephen Fuller also downplays the rail extension's performance, saying that rail wouldn't have a great effect on the Dulles Corridor employment, at least in the short term.

"With Metro, a hot job market would be hotter, but just by a few degrees," Fuller said.