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To draft or not to draft
I'm rarely one for National Football League talk this far away from the season, but with the NFL Draft scheduled for April 26-27, I guess I'd better get it rollin' for at least a couple weeks.
I heard a great bit on The Herd with Colin Cowherd as I was driving to work this morning. Cowherd referenced and raved about a column written by The South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Harvey Fialkov, arguing that the Miami Dolphins should pass on their first-round draft pick.
I'm not saying for a minute that the Dolphins will do this, and I don't believe that they should, although trading the top pick for a few established, not-so-expense veterans would make sense to me.
Quick tangent: I don't understand the thinking behind the one-player theory. If you finished 1-15, 2-14 or even 3-13, how on Earth do you think that one talented draft pick will reverse your fortunes?
That's like thinking, 'Well, my kid can't walk yet, but I'm going to buy him/her a $200 pair of New Balance tennis shoes to help with his/her training and conditioning.'
I don't have children, but you get my point. You have to walk before you can run. You have to get better before you can be the best.
But I think Fialkov wrote a thought-provoking column.
What if the Dolphins pass on the top pick and act on their pick later in the first round? Fialkov brought up a hypothetical that's centered around the player they do select, saying that pick's parents should argue for first-overall-type money.
Are you kidding me?
I guess playing professional football for gobs of money isn't enough?
I understand the Dolphins' fiscal reasoning for not using the top pick, but I'd argue to at least get something for it. Don't let it go to waste, and don't select someone later in the first round just to save money.
The first-overall draft pick is much more valuable to someone who covets it before the draft, assuming that person exists.
Think about it.
If the Dolphins cannot trade down, the it is obvious they should pass and slide down.
Think about it: If Chris Long, Jake Long and Glen Dorsey are all close in potential, then take whichever one is $3-4 million cheaper. Let St. Louis and Atlanta overpay for the first couple of picks. Save enough money to resign quality guys on your roster and get an elite player at #3 money instead of #1 overall money.
It makes sense...
Suppose the top pick in the draft is going to demand $35 million in guarantees and the second pick will demand $30 million, and the third player $26 million, etc.
A smart team just needs to decide, after all of their planning, analysis, scouting, free agency decisions, team need evaluation, etc, HOW MUCH EACH PLAYER IS WORTH. If a player is available at the team's draft slot but is not projected to be worth what the position demands, then trade down or slide down.
If you absolutely cannot trade down because NOBODY is willing to pay this year's #1 overall what last year's #1 made (because this is a weak class), then sit there and let the next team jump in front of you. Let them overpay for the #1 pick and then try to trade the #2 for something. It might be a lot easier to trade out of #2 or #3 than out of #1.
The Dolphins, for example, should be rational and say to themselves, "We really want Jake Long, and we're willing to pay $22 million in guarantees to him for five years, but we're NOT willing to pay $35 million. He's PROBABLY not Joe Thomas and he CERTAINLY is not Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden", Also, they should think about other top prospects and decide what is the most they're willing to risk/invest for each one, and how much that player would cost at each slot. Like "We're willing to pay $20 million guaranteed for Chris Long or $17 million for Vernon Gholston, but not more".
I know that fans and the media might revolt if a team sets a hard ceiling on what they're willing to pay, or accepts a trade offer that doesn't seem like the best value, but how often do fans and the media get it wrong? Most of them are not economists or statisticians. They get caught up in the hype about big name players while they forget about "boring" issues like salary cap and basic economic trade-off analysis.
Suppose pick #1 is worth $30 million but costs $35 million. Overpay $5 million.
Suppose pick #2 is worth $28 million but costs $30 million. Overpay $2 million.
Suppose pick #3 is worth $26 million and costs $26 million. Good Value.
It is worthwhile and it's the right thing to do to slide down if you absolutely cannot trade down.
As long as teams are stupid enough to overpay for top picks, they will continue to lose, and they will continue to get "rewarded" with another top pick to overpay for. If teams took a rational economic approach, we wouldn't need to change the draft system because the problem would correct itself.
Posted by Carl_1234
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